Headline CPI fell 0.4% in June and core printed 0.0%. Both numbers are correct. Neither one contains one of the largest climate-exposed costs in American household budgets, because homeowners insurance on the structure has been outside CPI scope since 1983. Move the weights to match a real household and watch what the official basket has been leaving out.
Annual inflation, 12 months to June 2026
Official
2.6% core
3.5% headline
Your basket3.50%
Whose basket
CPI weights are dollar-weighted across all urban consumers, so they lean toward households that spend more. Pick a household to reweight the basket toward what it actually buys.
0.29%
CPI counts only renters' policies and the contents portion of homeowners policies — 0.29% of the basket, about the weight of household cleaning products. Added weight is taken from owners' equivalent rent, the line item whose rental-equivalence logic excluded it.
0.29% (official)5.0%
6.0%
Private data put average new-policy premium growth near 8.5% through December 2025, after 18% and 12% in the two prior years. Disaster-exposed states have seen single-year increases above 20%.
0%25%
0%
Average deductibles rose about 22% in 2025. A higher deductible is a price increase the index cannot register — the premium holds down while the household absorbs more risk. Counted here at 25% pass-through to effective cost.
0%40%
2.7%
Groceries rose 2.7% over the year. But beef is up roughly 14% on a decades-low cattle herd and tomatoes about 20% on weather and tariffs. Herd rebuilding runs five to seven years, not one season.
0%12%
3.9%
Excluded from core, because energy shocks are assumed to be supply shocks that revert. Data centre load is a demand shift. Retail electricity rose about 7% in 2025 and nearly 40% since 2021; Goldman has households absorbing another 6% through 2027. Utilities requested $31bn in rate increases in 2025 with nearly half still unapproved.
0%15%
Where the number comes from
Contribution to your index in percentage points. Categories weighted under 0.5% in the official basket are marked — they move household budgets far more than they move the statistic.
Your index, all items3.50%
Your index, core basis2.65%
Gap to official core+0.05 pp
Insurance share of your index0.2%
Strikeline reads the whole market like this every trading day — regime, breadth, sector rotation, money flow — and turns it into position sizing you can actually use.